BACKGROUND: There is an uncertainty of which is going to be the trend of cardiovascular disease in Spain. In the present study cardiovascular disease mortality is described from 1975 to 1992 in Catalonia, and a prediction until 1997 is made, assuming the same trend. Possible causes of this trend are analyzed.
METHODS: Deaths from cardiovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease and stroke have been identified from 1975 to 1992. It has been used the direct method for standardization by age and sex, using the European population as the standard population. Logarithmic transformations of the standardized rates were used for each cause of death and for both sexes. Linear regression analysis was used to adjust the evolution of the rates in the time period.
RESULTS: There is a reduction of 2.6% and 2.7% by year in rates for cardiovascular diseases mortality for both males and females respectively, a reduction of 1.2% by year in rates for ischaemic heart disease in males and a reduction of 1.8% in females, and a reduction of 4.0% and 4.2% for stroke in males and females respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Trends in cardiovascular disease mortality reveal a decline for both males and females, mostly due to a reduction in stroke mortality; ischaemic heart disease mortality slightly decreased specifically during the period 1983-1992.
