Data from the North Carolina End-of-Grade test of eighth-grade mathematics are used to estimate the achievement results that would have been obtained from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 1994 Trial State Assessment, had it been administered. Linear regression models are used to develop projection equations to predict state NAEP results in the future. Standard errors of the parameter estimates are obtained using a bootstrap resampling technique. As an illustration, the projection equation is applied to data from North Carolina school districts to obtain estimates of district-level performance. As expected, there is substantial variability among the school districts, with a range of average (projected) scores comparable to that for the range of 1992 state NAEP averages.
