Data from the North Carolina End‐of‐Grade test of eighth‐grade mathematics are used to estimate the achievement results on the scale of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Trial State Assessment. Linear regression models are used to develop projection equations to predict state NAEP results in the future, and the results of such predictions are compared with those obtained in the 1996 administration of NAEP Standard errors of the parameter estimates are obtained using a bootstrap resampling technique.
